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Trump on the cusp of putting away GOP race
If Sunday's NBC/WSJ/Marist poll showing Donald Trump ahead by 15 points in Indiana is correct, then Trump's path to the Republican presidential race would turn into a cakewalk. And this kind of result in Indiana, which holds its primary on Tuesday, would knock out Ted Cruz and the "Stop Trump" movement. The NBC/WSJ/Marist poll found Trump getting support of 49% of likely GOP primary voters in Indiana -- followed by Cruz at 34% and John Kasich at 13%.
Given that Indiana awards its 57 delegates by a combination of winner-take-all in the state, as well as winner-take-all in each congressional district, a 15-point spread would mean Trump would get all of the delegates. That would put the real-estate mogul on easy street to get the 1,237 delegates needed to win a majority on a first ballot: Trump would need to win just 40% of remaining delegates after Indiana -- down from the 46% he needs right now. Maybe more importantly, a defeat in Indiana by any size would cripple Cruz and #NeverTrump. After all, if you can't beat Trump in Indiana, where else can you beat him? Of course, there's the possibility our poll isn't right; another recent poll showed Cruz ahead in the Hoosier State. But every other Indiana poll has Trump ahead. And if that holds on Tuesday, then this Trump line seems true: "If we win Indiana, it's over." Here's the current GOP delegate math:
Trump holds a 433-delegate lead over Cruz
Trump needs to win 46% of remaining delegates to reach 1,237 magic number
Cruz needs to win 130% of remaining delegates to reach 1,237 magic number
Kasich needs to win 209% of remaining delegates to reach 1,237 magic number
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